India could see COVID-19 End 99% by June 4

India could see COVID-19 End 99% by June 4 says Singapore Scientists

Singapore Scientists

Ever since the novel coronavirus outbreak began in India, the question on everyone's mind is when will this end. Now, a data-driven model prediction indicate that the COVID-19 will end 97% by May 25, and 99% by June 4 in India. These predictions have come from the Data-Driven Innovation Lab (DDI), Singapore University of Technology and Design.

As per the latest predictions from the DDI lab, the cases will end 100% in India by August 1. Across the world, on the other hand, the cases of the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 could continue till November 27. The predictions show that the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 will end 97% by May 30 and 99% by June 16 across the globe.

The data shows that China, South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, Vietnam and Iceland have already witnessed 99% end of COVID-19.

The scientists, however, caution that these predictions are purely data-driven and should be used together with the real-world dynamics and government policy changes. Moreover, the transmission dynamics in any country is also dependent on the monitoring and control measures implemented in that country as well as other countries around the world as no one can live in isolation in today's world.

 India crossed the peak level of infection transmission somewhere around April 22. However, experts in India believe that the peak is yet to come, and if the control measures continue effectively, the spread of coronavirus could reach its peak in India by the end of May.

"All of us around the world today naturally want to know when the COVID-19 pandemic will end. However, estimating the end dates naturally difficult due to the uncertainty of future as a result of the complex, dynamic and heterogeneous nature of the world we live in and the infectious disease we are facing," writes the Jianxi Luo, Director of DDI about the motivation behind their prediction.

Like any other pandemic, COVID-19 follows a life cycle pattern which includes the initial outbreak, acceleration phase, inflection point, deceleration phase and eventual ending, explains Dr Luo. This life cycle pattern is represented by the bell-shaped curve of the daily increase in confirmed cases over time, and it varies from country to country. Using mathematical models, data scientists estimate the approximate peak or inflection point for such outbreaks.

As national governments cannot wait for the last case to resume the economic activities, understanding the virtual end of spread where the situation is almost under control is crucial for further planning. Here, scientists have indicated these scenarios as the date to reach 99% and 97% of the total expected cases.

As per the estimate, the worst affected countries like the United States, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom could also witness a 99% end of COVID-19 before the end of May.

"Because of the complex, dynamic and heterogeneous realities in different countries, the curve, inflection and end dates must be continuously re-estimated with the newest data from official channels every day. The model-based and data-driven estimation of pandemic life cycle, inflection and end dates, if properly done, may reduce anxiety and over-optimism and prepare the mentality of all of us for the next phases of the epidemic evolution," explains Dr Luo, in a statement.